Agreed on all counts. Microsoft will need to find a little bit of humility, and find something it can sell besides Windows and Office if they want to get out of the doldrums, because forcing new user interfaces onto Windows and Office isn’t making it 1999 again.

And although PCs aren’t quite as easy to use as a dishwasher or microwave, once SSDs become standard, PCs will last as long as a dishwasher or microwave or other household appliance. I can come up with four companies that manage to remain profitable selling appliances that last 10+ years (let’s see: General Electric, Whirlpool, Electrolux, and Samsung), so it’s possible, but it’s going to be an adjustment.

Tablets and cell phones are where the upgrade cycle will be, and it may take the rest of the decade for that market segment to stabilize, though it will.

Where PC vendors are concerned, I think the drop in sales is not going to reverse — not because mobile devices are the future (everyone in the developed world is still going to want a desktop or laptop for long form typing and such), but because, as you point out, old computers are good enough for most ordinary web surfing/office productivity tasks. PC vendors have become dependent on businesses buying new desktop machines every 3 years, but those businesses are starting to realize that they don’t need to do that anymore except for that tiny fraction of their workforce that actually needs the most powerful hardware available.

Moore’s law has finally gotten ahead of the software for most basic computing tasks, and PC manufacturers are going to be suffering for a long time now as people and companies start keeping their machines for longer and longer periods of time. Again, I don’t see this as a bad thing for anyone except the shareholders.